Global Learning for Operational Leaders
Course OG-011
Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects
Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational... The outline covers Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk in Petroleum Projects, Quantitative Risk A...
Classroom
9 sessions
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Online / Live
9 sessions
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Introduction
Course overview
Why Attend
Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational risks. Traditional deterministic approaches often fall short in capturing the full range of possible outcomes.
This course introduces structured probabilistic techniques that enable professionals to quantify uncertainty, evaluate risk exposure, and make informed decisions. Participants will learn how to apply risk-based thinking to exploration, development, and production projects, improving both financial performance and operational resilience.
Course Methodology
The course combines practical learning with applied techniques through:
- Real-world case studies from upstream, midstream, and downstream projects
- Hands-on exercises in probabilistic risk assessment
- Group discussions and scenario-based simulations
- Step-by-step demonstrations of decision analysis tools
- Practical frameworks for immediate workplace application
Course Objectives
By the end of this course, participants will be able to:
- Apply probabilistic methods to assess project risks
- Model uncertainty using appropriate statistical distributions
- Perform risk-based evaluations of petroleum projects
- Use decision analysis tools to compare project alternatives
- Interpret results from quantitative risk models
- Integrate probabilistic analysis into project planning and investment decisions
Target Audience
This program is designed for:
- Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers
- Project Managers in oil & gas projects
- Risk and Reliability Engineers
- Planning and Cost Control Professionals
- Financial Analysts and Investment Decision-Makers
- Professionals involved in exploration, development, and production
Target Competencies
Participants will develop the following competencies:
- Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)
- Quantitative modeling and analysis
- Decision analysis under uncertainty
- Scenario evaluation and forecasting
- Risk-informed investment decision-making
- Communication of risk and uncertainty insights
What you will achieve
Learning objectives
- Apply probabilistic methods to assess project risks
- Model uncertainty using appropriate statistical distributions
- Perform risk-based evaluations of petroleum projects
- Use decision analysis tools to compare project alternatives
- Interpret results from quantitative risk models
- Integrate probabilistic analysis into project planning and investment decisions
Who should attend
Target audience
- This program is designed for:
- Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers
- Project Managers in oil & gas projects
- Risk and Reliability Engineers
- Planning and Cost Control Professionals
- Financial Analysts and Investment Decision-Makers
- Professionals involved in exploration, development, and production
- Target Competencies
Methodology
Learning approach
- Real-world case studies from upstream, midstream, and downstream projects
- Hands-on exercises in probabilistic risk assessment
- Group discussions and scenario-based simulations
- Step-by-step demonstrations of decision analysis tools
- Practical frameworks for immediate workplace application
Course content
Five focused days of learning and application
Day 1
Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk in Petroleum Projects
- Overview of risk in exploration, development, and production
- Deterministic vs. probabilistic approaches
- Types of risks: subsurface, technical, economic, operational
- Risk identification techniques and structuring uncertainty
- Building a petroleum project risk register
- Introduction to probability concepts and distributions
Day 2
Quantitative Risk Assessment Techniques
- Statistical foundations for probabilistic analysis
- Defining input variables and uncertainty ranges
- Probability distributions (normal, lognormal, triangular, etc.)
- Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
- Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation concepts
- Practical exercises in quantitative risk modeling
Day 3
Decision Analysis for Petroleum Investments
- Decision-making frameworks in oil & gas
- Decision trees and expected monetary value (EMV)
- Risk vs. reward trade-offs in petroleum projects
- Portfolio decision-making concepts
- Value of information in exploration decisions
- Case study: Drilling investment evaluation
Day 4
Integrated Cost, Schedule & Production Risk Modeling
- Linking cost, schedule, and production uncertainties
- Modeling dependencies and correlations
- Production forecasting under uncertainty
- Scenario planning and stress testing
- Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
- Tools and software overview (conceptual)
Day 5
Risk-Based Decision Making & Project Optimization
- Embedding probabilistic analysis into project lifecycle
- Risk-informed planning and budgeting
- Communicating probabilistic results to stakeholders
- Governance and reporting of risk in petroleum projects
- Industry best practices and lessons learned
- Final group case study and presentations
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What does Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects (OG-011) cover?
This course covers Oil and Gas through a structured five-day outline focused on practical application, discussion, and implementation planning.
When is the next available session?
The next scheduled session starts on 11 - 15 May 2026, with additional classroom dates and mirrored Online / Live options listed in the course schedules section.
Who should attend this course?
This program is designed for:, Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers, Project Managers in oil & gas projects
How can I register for a session?
Use any Register button next to the available course dates to open the participant registration page and submit your booking request for the selected session.
Is this course available online as well as classroom-based?
Yes. The course detail page includes both classroom sessions and Online / Live sessions, with online options aligned to the same course dates for easier planning.
Where are classroom sessions delivered?
Current classroom venues include Munich, Amsterdam, London, Barcelona, Paris.
Still Have Questions?
Contact the academy team for course details, delivery options, and delegate guidance.
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